GEM is facing the pain of “de-bubbling”: trading breaks or becomes normal (VC303)

It has been a year and a half since the first batch of GEM stocks were listed. After the ups and downs, a realistic and embarrassing problem lay in front of investors: continuous and unprecedented declines, and liquidity risk was triggered.

As of the close of April 27, the GEM Composite Index hit a new low for the year. The closing index of 928.13 points fell 23.51% from the high point of 1220.65 points half a year ago. The data in the same range rose to 1.72% in the Shanghai Composite Index.

Accompanying the decline is often the shrinking of trading volume. The current trading volume of GEM is only one-third of the peak value in November 2010, and some stocks even have a trading break.

People in the industry generally believe that the 2010 GEM surge has overdrawn the gains in the next few years, and the process of "de-bubbling" will continue in the future.

"In 2011, GEM is still a situation of accelerating expansion, and the continuous decline in the price-earnings ratio is expected." Wu Guoping, chairman of Guangdong Darong Investment, said. And a non-sunshine private equity person also said that the main reason for the lack of trading on the GEM was "the loss of scarcity."

"There are now 200 listed companies on the GEM, more than 500 small and medium-sized boards, and more than 2,000 A shares. At this rate of expansion, the number of listed companies in the market is expected to expand to 4,000 to 5,000 in the next two years. "The above private placement said," Taking large institutions as an example, it can only cover a few hundred stocks at most, and some stocks are not concerned about for sure. This situation is more common in Hong Kong and overseas GEM. "

"Since there is no scarcity, why should I buy GEM stocks? Do they have more superior growth?" The above private equity questioned, "From the perspective of the annual report and the quarterly report, GEM stocks have not been realized The expected high growth and the volatility of performance have also made funds pay less attention to it. "The high price-earnings ratio problem is particularly dazzling in the GEM that has lost fundamental support. The return to reasonable valuation has gradually become the general direction of the stocks in this sector. .

In addition, Wu Guoping believes that "the implementation of the GEM has also scared away a lot of funds."

At present, the most closely related words on the GEM are "cash out", "senior executive turnover" and "declining performance". Wu Guoping said: "The first two behaviors have led to the continuous marginalization of GEM stocks, plus The GEM itself is not very liquid, and big funds dare not go in to take orders, so the big opportunity has been far from the GEM. "

"The situation in 2012 is expected to be more optimistic-Dafei will lift the ban (three-year period of stock sales ban), so the previous positioning of GEM has already overdrawn the future gains." The above-mentioned private equity thinks so.

With more and more listed companies, fluctuating performance, and executive cash-out, the three big mountains overwhelmed the GEM “bull”. In the future, many GEM companies will fade out of investors ’eyes and face a painful“ de-bubbling ”process. Wu Guoping said: "It is expected that this kind of bubble squeeze will be a long-term process. Personally, I don't think the GEM has bottomed out, especially since the delisting mechanism has not yet been introduced. In the end, how much risk is in this area and there is uncertainty.

The above-mentioned private equity believes that the indifference of trading will be the normal state of the ChiNext in the next 3 to 5 years. "At the end of 2010, the market has begun to squeeze the bubble, but the bubble is far from being squeezed."

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