On January 18, 2018, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the number of births in 2017 was 17.23 million, a total reduction of 630,000 compared with 2016. This figure is even lower than the minimum forecast of the previous parties. For example, the National Health and Family Planning Commission predicts that the birth peak will appear in 2018 at the beginning of the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, while the minimum forecast for the birth of 2017 is 20.232 million. The latest data shows that the birth peak has passed in 2017, and the birth population in 2017 is three million less than the minimum forecast of the Health Planning Commission.
Our previous prediction is that the birth population will reach its peak in 2017, and the birth population is expected to exceed 18 million in that year. However, with the sharp decline in the number of women of childbearing age after the end of fertility accumulation, the birth population will enter an avalanche in 2018, after the tenth. The year will shrink at a rate of 300,000 to 800,000 per year. But now it seems that the avalanche of births is earlier and faster than we expected.
Article source: Caixin Net
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